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Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of $171/mt seen back in March this year to as low as $108/mt recently. While the bank expects iron ore prices to be supported in the second half of 2022 due to expectations of a recovery in China, the longer-term outlook for iron ore is more bearish. On the demand side, it appears that China will continue to cap crude steel output, while also looking to replace older steel capacity with electric arc furnace capacity in order to help the country meet its decarbonization goals. Growth in electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity at the expense of basic oxygen furnace (BOF) capacity will be a concern for the medium-to-long-term outlook for Chinese iron ore demand. It also suggests that China’s iron ore imports have already peaked in 2020.

As for the supply picture, ING expects to see the ramping up of supply from new projects in Australia, along with Vale in Brazil continuing to target an annual production capacity of 400 million mt per year.